When Mike's back from Mono, who will sit?
Written by Jay   
Friday, 04 December 2009 12:34

mike_comrie_iron_lung

"When you're pining for the return of Comrie from the iron lung and Ryan Stone from wherever then you know that you have problems."  - Black Dog Hates Skunks

Speaking of the return of Mike Comrie, who will be sitting in the press box when he does return?  Yes, Mike Comrie himself has been hit particularly hard this season with the vicious triad of asthma, the flu, and mononucleosis.  Even though he does have the lovely Hilary Duff to nurse him back to health, I still genuinely feel bad for MC.  Pervasive questions surround the Edmonton Oilers roster of players not the least of which is the reality that were it not for injuries/illness, they actually would have too many forward skaters.

Fernando Pisani's been sidelined with a bout of Colitis and we're not sure at this point when he's expected to return.  Get well soon Fernando.  Ales Hemsky's out for the season with a shoulder injury (torn labrum) that will require surgery.  Marc Pouliot hasn't played a game this season due to a sports hernia.  He's expected to be healthy in two to three more weeks.  Perhaps the Oilers will have to sacrifice a bag of pucks to appease the hockey gods to ensure a salubrious roster.

With the Oilers injury situation aside, they actually have two extra players at the forward position.  Hemsky won't be returning and if Pisani does not either, they will be okay in that regard.  Yet, it still means that two players will be sitting in the press box if everyone stays healthy and Marc Pouliot and Mike Comrie return to play.  As for Marc Pouliot, it's likely that he will be send down to the AHL for a conditioning stint.  When MC returns to play, who's the most likely candidate for sitting in the press box?  Let's take a look at the numbers...

 

Player GP G A P PPG Corsi GF-GA 5v5 5v4 4v5
G Brule 25 7 10 17 0.68 -14 0 2.8
R Potulny 12 5 2 7 0.58 -0.44 0 1.78 8.3 7.7
P O'Sulliv 28 6 9 15 0.54 -11.7 -1.24 1.95 1.4 7.1
M Comrie 16 5 3 8 0.50 -2.9 -0.72 1.46 4.7
R Stone 9 0 4 4 0.44 -0.66 0 2.65 10.9
R Nilsson 13 2 3 5 0.38 -24.2 -3.4 1.28 5.86
A. Cogliano 28 3 5 8 0.29 -17.3 0.72 1.08 13.5
JF Jacques 21 2 4 6 0.29 -16 -1.39 1.46
E Moreau 27 4 3 7 0.26 -20.3 -.19 1.36

By the numbers...

Since this is a numbers game, let's see how the numbers add up for various press box candidates.  First, let's consider that both JF Jacques and Ryan Stone have recently returned.  Both players possess a unique skill set that's currently lacking on our roster.  In short, they provide a physical presence in delivering crushing checks and presumably winning puck battles in the corner.  Around the 'sphere, some have criticized both Stone and Jacques for their hockey skills.  In their defence, I think that the aspect they bring has an intangible impact on hockey games.

Let's say you're actually playing in the NHL and you're skating into the corner to retrieve the puck.  If Robert Nilsson's barreling in after you, would you handle the puck differently than if it were JF Jacques?  I think so...  Jacques and Stone have the ability to induce fear in players which changes how they react to situations.  As well, we've seen that both of these players can agitate and get under the skin of opposing teams. In obvious situations, we see them create space and lead to a scoring chance or goal.  Yet, in less obvious situations, they do bring that intagible element to the game.

Even by the numbers, both Stone and Jacques don't actually look too bad relative to the other players in the above comparison.  Ryan Stone has one of the better Corsi numbers above (-.66), is even at goals for minus goals against per sixty minutes of play (GF-GA/60), and his points per sixty minutes of play at even strength (5v5)  is currently better than most on the above list too.  Granted, for him it is a smaller sample size.

jf_jacques

JF Jacques - 21 games played / 84 hits.  Heat seaking missile?

For JF Jacques, his numbers are not quite as good.  His -16 Corsi number and goal differential show that he's leaking shots and goals against.  However, his Corsi number is better than Ethan Moreau's along with his point production.  Relative to Ethan Moreau, his numbers are not too far off, though he does provide more of a physical element. Despite playing only 21 games, JF Jacques is currently 11th in the league with 84 hits!  David Staples recently described some of those hits as hellacious which is an apt descriptor.  Jacques has the skating ability and the strength to really provide an effective presence on the ice in terms of checks.

Again by the numbers, it's pretty apparent that Ryan Potulny's been eating Robert Nilsson's lunch.  Potulny can play both center and wing.  He's also show some good chemistry on the line with Anderew Cogliano and Ethan Moreau.  At even-strength, Potulny's even in terms of goal differential and his Corsi is close to as well.  In contrast, Robert Nilsson's been hemorrhaging 3.4 goals against per sixty minutes as well as shots directed towards the net.  Further, Potulny has outperformed Nilsson on the power play, not to mention that he's useful for killing penalties.

Given Mike Comrie's role in the top six along with some power play minutes, it's exceedingly likely that when he returns, Robert Nilsson will find himself a healthy-scratch yet again.  Last night, Nilsson showed some flashes of skill with his undressing of Eriksson (Detroit Red Wings) along with some better defensive play.  Yet, the occasional brilliant one-on-one play probably won't be enough to keep him on the ice unless circumstances change.  Assuming he's out for the typical 4 weeks of no-contact sports for mono, Mike Comrie could be ready to start practicing by December 18th--with a return to game play depending on his conditioning.



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