Alexei Ponikarovsky to the Edmonton Oilers?

For Oilers’ fans, many expected to see more activity in terms of roster changes during the off season.  The Dany Heatley deal blew up and given the steps forward taken by both Dustin Penner and Ladislav Smid, it was certainly for the best.  Though Mike Comrie did not seem to fit a particular roster need for this team, many felt that he had the potential to out-perform his contract.

When it comes to speculating, there’s no shortage of armchair GMs or NHL trade rumor sites.  For hockey fans, the idea of trades and roster changes inspire hope for their respective teams particularly if their teams themselves are struggling.  In the real world, actually making a trade is probably much more difficult than many of us can imagine.

Prior to the start of this season, Oilers bloggers seemed to think that this team needed one of a right-handed pivot (3rd line) who could actually win faceoff draws, a big winger with hands for the top six, an upgrade at 1LW, a veteran backup goalie, a shutdown defenseman, or more vets for the bottom of the roster.  However, none of these issues were addressed and instead the team’s management wanted to see where we’re at with the new coaching staff.

Initially, the Oilers experienced some success with Pat Quinn’s balanced lines which loosely consisted of a physical presence,  a shooter, and a play maker on each unit.  However, with the litany of injuries to Oilers’ depth players, this setup was no longer possible.  Instead, Pat Quinn had to reunite the Horpensky line which itself was an effective line.  However, to win hockey games, you typically need more than one line that can out-score the opposition and the Oilers fast became a one-line hockey team while secondary scoring dried up.

As for the perceived needs of the Oilers roster, there’s no question that the Oilers remain weak at winning faceoffs (28th in league currently).  The injury to Shawn Horcoff’s shoulder has clearly worsened this situation.  This year, Dustin Penner has emerged as a legitimate option for 1-LW.  Though Jeff Deslauriers alternately makes brilliant saves followed by allowing softer goals, he’s certainly not been the Oilers’ biggest roster issue.  With the step forward in Smid’s play along with Staios putting in a consistent effort—along with the rest of the defensive corps, the defensive unit does not seem to be among the top areas of concern.

As an Oilers’ fan myself, JF Jacques is fun to watch play.  With his size and good foot speed, he’s like a heat-seeking missile on the ice in terms of delivering hits.  With a healthier roster, the Oilers have depth players who can play physical and win puck battles and they have some players with skill who can generate offense.  However, what they seem to be in short supply of are players who can do both.   Pat Quinn is either left with playing  a small, skilled line like the kid line (Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson) and watching their time and space get taken away or putting a physical presence on the line at the cost of offensive potential (Jacques, Stortini, or Stone).

Recently, Oilers GM, Steve Tambellini has commented that he would like to wait until the Oilers are healthy to get a better idea of where they’re at.  Unfortunately, the player injuries are continuing  to mount at a steady pace which makes this seem impossible.  Oilers fans have nearly unanimously warmed up to Oilers’ coach, Pat Quinn, particularly for his honest and candid post game interviews.  Note—You have to catch these interviews live on the Oilers website before they get edited or you’re just missing out.

When a team loses games, it’s natural to attribute this to lack of effort or to the mistakes made during the game.  However, when confronted with playing better hockey teams, they’re going to force you into to make these mistakes and to look like you’re getting out-worked.  It’s possible that this is the situation for the Edmonton Oilers.

Pat Quinn:

I don't know if it's a funk.  Maybe we're playing where we are.

Prior to the start of this season, Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal suggested that the Oilers might be interested in Dustin Brown of the LA Kings.  However, he speculated that this trade would have came at the cost of Ales Hemsky.  As such, the idea didn’t seem to mesh well with tthe palettes of Oilers fans.

Recently, there’s been some hockey buzz surrounding a potential trade deal between the Toronto Maple Leafs, Chicago Blackhawks, and Edmonton Oilers.  Though the Chicago Blackhawks have one hell of a hockey team this season, they’ve mismanaged their salary cap by signing pricey unrestricted free agents including Marian Hossa among others.

From Jonathan Willis:

With deals for restricted free agents Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith rumoured to be all but announced, the ‘Hawks need to clear some cap space to fit in their three stars.

There’s no question that the BlackHawks’ fiduciary mismanagement of their salary cap will create an opportunity.  The opportunity to acquire some talent from the Blackhawks will require a trading partner that has the ability to absorb salary cap space and deal off a younger player +/- prospect +/- a draft pick.  However, the Oilers already have their own salary cap issues which makes them an unlikely direct trade partner.  Instead, they might find an opportunity in a 3-way deal which could send Alexei Ponikarovsky to the Oilers.

Alexi Ponikarovsky Career Stats:

Alexi Ponikarovsky Advanced Stats:

• GP 23, G8, A3, P11, PIM 22, plus/minus +1, S% 12.3%
• [Size: 6’4”, 229 lbs, left wing, age 29]
• Leads the Leafs with 45 hits
• Corsi:  19.64 (4rth on leafs)
• GFON/60 – GAON/60 = +.25
• Qualcomp: 0.025 (3rd highest forward on Leafs)
• Qualteam: 0.227 (5th highest forward on Leafs)
• 5v5 / 60 = 1.77 (3rd highest forward on Leafs)
• Zonestart= 54%
• 5v4/60= .91 (TOI= 2.85/60)

What do these numbers tell us?

I honestly almost never watch the Leafs play, so I am only going by the numbers here.  By the numbers, he’s certainly a big winger who provides a physical presence.  At even-strength, he’s out-shooting and outscoring the opposition while playing tough minutes.  At first glance, the Oilers could certainly use a 2-LW like Ponikarovsky who can provide size, a physical presence and face tough opposition.  Though the Oilers’s roster currently lacks size and balance, it does have some good pieces.  It's also not hard to imagine that even a player like Ponikarovsky could change the complexion of their top six.

• Penner - Gagner - Hemsky
• Ponikarovsky - Horcoff - O'Sullivan

Black Dog Hates Skunks -

Hey, as an update, I recently asked BDHS about the Poni.

Black Dog said...

Jay - I like him. Actually I like both him and Hagman and would love to see the Oilers go after either of them. The big problem with Ponikarovsky is that he is UFA after this season. But he has played for Quinn before so ....

But yeah I like him. I see the Leafs quite a bit. He can be a bit streaky with the offence at times and it would be nice if he banged a little more, he's a huge guy.

But he's a big body. He's good for twenty goals every year and he's always a plus player or thereabouts and that's with some lousy teams too. I don't know about the specific numbers but my eye he plays some tough competition, he certainly did when he was with Sundin.

He's a good player and the Oilers are so brutal on LW I think he's a guy they should be interested in, imo.

Comments (6)

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written by RyanB, November 26, 2009

I'd like to see the Oil make a trade f for no other reason that at least it would look like we're trying. This team is about five games from life support though so I'd hate to be moving picks in the first couple of rounds at this point because they might turn out to be damn good ones.

Ponikarovsky is a UFA at seasons end and will likely get a good raise on the $2.5 M he's making this year. With that in mind I don't see how we could resign him after this year. If we got rid of some dead weight (Nilsson) as part of the trade then I'd be on board but just picks or propects might not be worth it.

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written by Jim P, November 26, 2009

Hi Jay,

Ya beat me too it. I've heard the same whispers and I like the idea of Ponikarovsky if only because he provides a less repetitive group of smaller forwards.

From what I'm hearing, Andrew Cogliano and a draft pick (which would wind its way up to Toronto) is what I've heard. Lord knows Burke needs draft picks after moving future picks for Kessel.

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written by Jay-, November 26, 2009

@Ryan - Good thoughts. I agree entirely in that a trade at this point would at least show that the Oilers management is trying to improve the situation. A trade just to appease the fans can be a very bad idea, but when there's an obvious need, it's a different story.

As for Ponikarovsky, he will certainly require a bigger contract next season. The fact that his contract ends this season also means that he will likely have less trade value though.

@Jim, thanks for the updates on the potential asking price for Ponikarovsky. I've been thinking about Ponikarovsky for a while. Blackdoghatesskunks mentioned him in a Lowetide thread earlier this season as a player of interest to the Oilers. To me, there's no question that the Oilers could use a big, physical, top six winger with soft hands whether it be Ponikarovsky or someone else.

I do like Cogliano, but as many have suggested, it seems that the Oilers have to make a decision to keep one of Cogliano or Gagner. Since Cogliano's already been included in the Heatley trade, it seems that they've already made their decision.

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written by Racki, November 26, 2009

I'm starting to get to the point where there are few players on the roster that I'm attached to. Quinn's statement was a bit of a kick in the junk.

You know what, I've always been a big fan of Ales Hemsky, but maybe a Dustin Brown is what this team needs. I don't think the Kings would be too willing to depart with him, but you'd have to think that Hemsky gets it done. I am hesitant to say Brown is the solution though just because his numbers aren't quite there. I wonder if something like Cogliano and Gilbert would do it. I have doubts since both of those guys are having off years.

Yah, I'm actually still hesitant on Hemsky But I'm willing to give up most other players now. Cogliano used to be an untouchable for me. And I do think he's a better player than he's being used for here, but you have to give to get, right? I think the Oilers need to do something though.

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written by sportsjuice, November 26, 2009

I do watch the Leafs from time to time and I'm not sure Poni is the answer. He is pretty invisible a lot of the time and I was a bit surprised when I did my Leafs analysis the other day over on my blog that he had such a good 2008-2009 season. Given guys typically peak around age 24-27, I'm thinking that 40-50 points is what we are likely to see. Not worth it for a guy who would likely walk back east somewhere after the season.

Which I had an opinion as to what to do, but I'm at a bit of a loss. Somehow, some way we need to become a place where players want to play so we can take part in the free agent market without having to pay a premium for second rate talent.

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written by Jay-, November 26, 2009

@Racki. Hearing Quinn's recent comments about the team have been hard to stomach, but at the same time, it's somehow refreshing to hear an honest assessment.

As you suggest, it's probably reasonable to expect that the trade value of most of the Oilers has declined this year (outside of the obvious exceptions). I also agree with both your thoughts that the Oilers have to do something and that there are few players that I wouldn't be willing to trade.

@Jonathan. I think the only chance that the Oilers have to become more attractive for free agents is to build a better team first. Most teams already pay a premium for UFA's, so I am not sure that will be the long-term solution at any rate. With the salary cap, the days of stacking a team with top free agents is no longer feasible even if you get a better rate.

As for Ponikarovsky, I will have to make an effort to catch some Leaf's games to have a better idea, but I appreciate your thoughts as someone who's actually followed the Leafs somewhat. It still depends on what the actual asking price works out to in terms of deciding whether or not it's worth it. He's certainly not a Kopitar or Nash, but probably a huge upgrade over many of our current players. Not to mention that at least he's not another small, semi-skilled, non-physical, perimeter-playing forward!

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