Game 17 - Edmonton Oilers vs. Colorado Avalanche - November 8, 2009 - Pepsi Center [6pm Snet]

The Edmonton Oilers(7-8-1) will face the Colorado Avalanche (12-3-2) at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado.  The Oilers are trying to snap a three game losing streak against the Western Conference leader.  Of note, the Oilers will not only be playing without Souray or Horcoff, but reports indicate that Ales Hemsky did not make the trip either due to a shoulder injury.  Ladislav Smid himself may not play due to illness and will be a game time decisions.  Is it likely that Oilers who have lost 6 of their past 7 games can beat the upstart Colorado Avalanche without Souray, Horcoff, Hemsky, Jacques, Stone, and possibly Smid?  Unfortunately, I wouldn't bet on it.

For Oilers coach, Pat Quinn, things weren't supposed to work out this way.  Pat Quinn had ralied the team and created lines with balanced scoring, defense, crust, and skill only to see player after player fall victim to illness or injury.  He's now faced with playing a 4 kids with unreliable defense or faceoff abilities at center ice.  Souray, Horcoff, and Hemsky combine for $15 million dollars in salary cap that won't be playing in this game!  In fact, the number from CapGeek suggest that our current roster for this game if Smid plays is adds up to only $43.6 million (2009 NHL Salary cap $56.8 million).  Our centers expected to play for this upcoming game collectively total only $4.1 million in terms of 'cap hit.'

In their first game of this year, the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Edmonton Oilers with score of 3-0.  In that game Colorado scored in the first minute of play with a turnover in the Oilers zone from Visnovsky/Horcoff.  After that, Colorado did a pretty good job at slowing the Oilers down in the neutral zone and preventing the Oilers from creating very much pressure in their zone.  As for shots, the Oilers were outshot by a margin of 35-25 during that game.  Colorado didn't hessitate to chip the puck out of their zone to relieve pressure.

Game On!  Denver's Pepsi Center

Pregame stats

By the numbers, the Colorado Avalanche are one of the few teams that averages less shots per game than the Oilers.  Further, the Avalanche are also slightly weaker in the faceoff circle as well.  Other than the Oilers being the only team here with a negative goal differential, the other items that jumps out is the Avalanche penalty kill which is currently 3rd best in the league.  As for shot differntials, the Oilers is worse at -9 which puts them in some concerning territory.  Scott Reynold took a look at teams with comparable shot differntials over the past several years:  Link here.

Here's my sophisticated mathematical analysis of the Oilers current situation--I expect to see a link from the Hockey or Die blog on this fine work:

Edmonton Oilers Projected Lineup:

Colorado Avalanche Projected Lineup:

Jones - Stastny - Hejduk
McLeod - Duchene - Svatos
Wolski - O'Reilly - Stewart
Koci - Dupuis - Hendricks

Hannan - Quincey
Foote - Cumiskey
Clark - Wilson

Anderson

Post Game thoughts:  Oilers 5 - Avalache 3

Comments (3)

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written by sportsjuice, November 08, 2009

Oilers looking better tonight. More speed perhaps due to less flu. Studwick in particular looks like an NHLer for the first time in awhile.
This comment is from middle first period. for some reason it didn't get added.

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written by Jay, November 08, 2009

Hey Jonathan,

The comment system's a little buggy. Since you're a registered user, it won't let you comment with your name unless you sign in. It's also a little bit slow, but I am working on it.

First period, the Oilers were firing pucks and getting some luck on the powerplay. Nilsson's still making bad passes/give aways in the offensive zone. Chorney left the Avalanche wide open in front of the net for their first goal of the game. I think he screened/deflected the second Colorado goal in too.

Staios has made some good veteran plays and stops. I think he knocked the net off its moorings which prevented a goal against. Strudwick and Chorney have been burned a few times each by Colorado's fast wingers.

Strudwick did make a great play on knocking the puck off Stastny to prevent a goal. However, two minutes later he did a behind the back no looker to set up an Avalanche player in front of the net.

Overall, Bulin's been great. Unfortunately, the Oilers have started well, but are finishing slow. We've been heavily outshot in the second period!!!

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written by Jay, November 08, 2009

Nice powerplay goal by Potulny.

Nice play by Chorney to set up another Avalanche goal (His third helper of the night). He made the no looker pass to an Av player, then he drove to the net to knock over Khabibulin. Good effort on that goal Chorney!

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