The People's GM: Evaluating the Oilers Defensive Defensemen
Written by Jonathan Joyce   
Tuesday, 02 February 2010 18:29
ladislav_smid_oilers

In this installment of the People's GM, I am going to evaluate our defensive defensemen.  Perhaps more accurately stated, I will evaluate those D-men that do not have much of an offensive game.  In my last post, we looked at the scoring defensemen and noted that we have committed too many dollars these guys.  As a result, we have a couple of AHL caliber players on our blue line.  This is not a recipe towards solid defensive team play.

Before I get into my look at Ladislav Smid, Steve Staios, Jason Strudwick and Taylor Chorney, I still have some steam to get out of my ears from Saturday night's game.  As the new GM of your Edmonton Oilers, I felt that it was important to head down to the Saddledome to get a first-hand look at our team.   I am not sure I can put into publishable words how disappointed I was with what I saw on the ice on Saturday night.   Scrub and scrub as I may, I still cannot get the stink off of my eyes.

In my mind I had been following the team with some vigilance, but I obviously was not watching the television very closely the past few weeks.  Either that or television does not do justice to just how poor the effort level is from the Oilers.  It had not crossed my mind that we might need a change in coaches as part of this rebuilding effort, but the team certainly has lost any interest in this season.   I am embarrassed that I earmarked Sheldon Souray as our next captain a couple of weeks ago.  He played Saturday night with a level of selfishness that it rarely seen in the NHL.

The above said, all hope is not lost as was illustrated by my good friend Brian Burke on Sunday morning.  One team's trash is another team's treasure.   Bad contracts can be moved if one is creative enough.  We have a number of serviceable parts and I will be working hard to clear out as much of our dead wood as possible before the start of next season.  My philosophy is similar to Burke's in that the solution starts by building the team from the net out.  Critical to our success is bringing in a couple of shut down defensemen.   To be a consistent team in the NHL we need to shut down the opposition's top line.  We currently do not have the personal to accomplish this.

The other thing I take from Burke is the need to specifically identify both the individuals we wish to dump, but more importantly the people we want to bring in.  The Leafs identified a type of defenseman they wanted and a list of 6 players who fit the bill.  It took them 2 ½ months to make a deal but you have to appreciate their process.

Follow the jump for evaluation of the Oilers defensive defensemen.

Below are the salaries for our defensemen over the next few years.  Cap dollars can vary a bit.

oilers_d_cap_hit
***Click to enlarge

You will note that we have Staios, Smid and Chorney on the books for one more year with Strudwick mercifully off our hands after this season.   If I had bet you that Smid was one year older than Chorney you would have taken that bet and I would be a few dollars richer.

Below is a table looking at each player's performance over the past several seasons.  Again, I am using my personal favourite, Player Contribution for past seasons and looking at Goals Versus Threshold and Cult of Hockey's True +/- for this season.

oiler_def_d_men_table

To refresh memories, a PC over 50 is a pretty decent player.  A PC of 0 translates to a random player in the minors.   GVT is similar in terms of 0 being a bit of a threshold for ineptitude.

Excluding this season, the above table indicates that Staios has marginal defensive value, while Smid and Strudwick have not provided a heck of a lot to the team.  For this season, Smid's 2009-2010 GVT number is actually north of zero which is respectable.  Staios appears to be showing his age and is contributing at an AHL level with Strudwick and Chorney.  It pains me to write that about Staios as I really like the way he plays.

Running through the players individually:

Smid
I am not sold on the fact that Smid is a bona fide NHL player.   He brings close to nothing to the table offensively and his defensive contribution is questionable.  That said, he will only cost us $1.4 million next year and he is still only 23 years old.  I am pretty sure we will keep him in the fold.
Staios
I am not sure what happened to Staios the past couple of years.  He went from a player who jumped into the rush to a player who does not offer much to the mix.  He heart is unquestionable but someone else will be paying his $2.2 million salary ($2.7 million cap hit) next year.
Strudwick
Struds is a quick case study to complete.  He is gone at the end of the season.  I would rather try out some of our young AHL talent than plug up a roster spot with Jason.
Chorney
Taylor has one more year left on his deal.  I would happily include him in a package deal if requested; otherwise I will wait to see how hard he works over the summer.  Ideally he would spend another year in the AHL until he proves that he can play at the NHL level.

The big question to be answered is who do we bring in to help out at the defensive end of the ice?  If we get lucky and trade two of Souray/ Vishnovsky/ Gilbert, we will have some cap dollars to play with.  The table below denotes the top defensive defensemen the league last year and what they were paid.  You'll see some guys who are greatly offensively as well as defensively.   The PCD column denotes their defensive contribution to their team's success.

top_d_men_pc

The point of this table is to point out how many good defensive defensemen are out there for Staios-like money.  This includes Ryan82's favourite, Anton Volchenkov of Ottawa at $2.5 million per season.   After I finish scolding prior management for not taking a run at Scuderi last offseason, I will use this list as a starting point for my calls out to other teams on the trade front with a focus on players under 26 or 27 years of age.  Are there any other players that we should be targeting? And yes, I promise that I will not trade for Wade Redden though it is interesting to note that he actually does still have some value.

Next time things will get a lot more interesting as we start to work our way through the forwards.  First up will be a look at the small forwards:  Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nillson, Patrick O'Sullivan, Gilbert Brule and Mike Comrie.  Oiler fans: what should we do with these guys?

When Jonathan Joyce is not working hard to fix your Edmonton Oilers, he often writes over at his blog, The Sports Juice.



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Comments (8)Add Comment
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written by Jay-, February 02, 2010
Jonathan, another good, thought-provoking article!

Re: Struds, I'm actually worried that the Oilers will re-sign him for next season. Pat Quinn seems to love the guy and he's expressed this publicly. I really hope that Struds doesn't get re-signed for next season. He's just too slow to be of any use though he does seem like a nice guy.

Steve Staios
is another guy that's finished. He's a loyal soldier to the Oilers but at his $2.7 million cap hit, his contract is an atrocity. I'm skeptical that the Oilers will be able to move him, so I can only remain hopeful that he retires.

Ladislav Smid had a great start to this season fueled by his play with Lubomir Visnovsky. When he doesn't play with Lubo, he hasn't been very effective.

Jonathan Willis just wrote an article about this the other day at Hockey or Die:

http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/...visnovsky/

Taylor Chorney
seems to a guy that the Oilers management love despite having probably the worst combined +/- of anyone that's played in both the AHL and NHL this season. I don't think a quality top six can include Chorney based on what we've seen so far, but I won't be surprised to see him play for the Oilers next season regardless.

In the minors, he's thought to have some offense, but we haven't seen that at the NHL level yet. He doesn't have much NHL level offense, but he's a hard guy to call a 'defensive defenseman.'
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written by Ryan82, February 03, 2010
Hey Jonathan,
I have a feeling Struds stays assuming the Oil move Staios and Souray/Visnovsky next year. Quinn is a supporter and management will probably feel they need a vet around. I'm still hoping the they go the free agent route for the vet and sign AnVol(hows that for a nickname, Anvil, get it?) I see you feel Smid isnt a proven NHLer yet, I get where youre coming from on that and can even agree at times, Smid never got a chance to develop properly in the AHL. His offensive abilities are...well he gots none at the moment. So now he focuses purely on defence. Once that is mastered, the offense comes more naturally, I can see him being a 5g and 20-25 assists a year guy. He's a strong skater and puck handler for a dman. Its only a matter of time. As for Chorney, if the Oil plan on keeping Grebs, I don't really see a spot for Chorney. I just can't see him being anything more than a 6th dman that can fill in on the pp. They are both small-med sized puckmovers that pass before shoot on the pp. Combine Girlbert, Grebs, Visnovsky, and Chorney thats 4 of 6 dmen that cant put the hurt on anyone. If the Oilers cant move some of the smaller forwards for next year, we need that shut down pairing. As of the last few games, Quinn has tried to play matchups. This doesnt work if our top forwards can't outplay the other teams top forwards, and our dmen cant help contain them. Thats my rant for the week. Peace out. Ps I would pick Seguin.
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written by jonathanjoyce, February 03, 2010
@Jay: Thanks for that link which really seems to support those of you out there that say Lubo is a quality player at both ends of the rink.

@Ryan: I think I agree with you on Smid. At times I think he is really good and at times I can see the offensive potential you allude to. Hopefully next he can get to that 5-25 point total you envisage for him.

I also agree with the shut down defensemen need. We have a bunch of guys with theroretical 'active sticks' which is another way of saying they don't hit anyone. If I were coming in to Rexall to play I would be licking my chops at the prospects of forechecking hard without any fear of having my head taken off. The Oilers don't do anything to discourage the other team and make them think they are destined to lose.
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written by jonathanjoyce, February 03, 2010
One thing I didn't mention in the table of top D-men. If you subtract the PCD from the PC that equals their offensive/shootout contribution. It is pretty easy to identify the true defensive defensemen to those that bring it at both ends of the rink.

I should also say that all else equal, guys on great teams will have a higher PC (though arguably this is because of the contribution of the player). For me, it makes the numbers put up by Hejda, Hannah and O'Donnell all the more impressive.
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written by Jay-, February 03, 2010
That's the bottom line Jonathan as you suggest. The Oilers don't have much of a deterrent in terms of physical defensemen especially outside of Souray. Prior to the recent losing streak/scoring slump, preventing goals from going in the net was the biggest problem for the Oilers.
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written by jonathanjoyce, February 05, 2010
Any views on the next post, which will be on the little forwards? Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nillson, Patrick O'Sullivan, Gilbert Brule and Mike Comrie.

It is really a matter of setting the top two lines which need to provide offense. None of these guys should be part of the checking third line nor the beefy fourth line. If I pencil Penner and Hemsky in, that is four spots open, keeping in mind possibly bringing in a new player or two. And bringing in Eberle and Swedish guy with a long name that I always forget...

As GM, I am leaning towards only having 2 of the 6 pipsquicks around come next year.
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written by Jay-, February 05, 2010
Yeah, the Oilers have too many midgets and with possible Jordan Eberle or Linus Omark playing next season, there's a huge logjam.

Here's my thoughts:

Robert Nilsson - He's been a healthy scratch lately which doesn't make sense in terms of maintaining his trade value. He shows flashes of skill, but is too inconsistent. I would trade Nilsson for whatever we could get to free up his cap space.

Sam Gagner - He's one to keep for sure. He's been the Oilers best player lately and is still very young. He's no Patrick Kane, but one of the better players that we have.

Patrick O'Sullivan - He gets moved if possible though he's had a terrible year and carries an expensive contract. O'Sullivan hasn't been a useful player on our roster. Take one look at his +/- and you could make someone cry. He's the jack of all trades but master of none which doesn't make him very useful.

Andrew Cogliano - I would trade Cogliano though I know that David Staples loves him. It's more a matter of needing to move someone that could potentially get you a return. Let's be honest, we're not going to get any return if we're even able to move Staios, Moreau, O'Sullivan, or Pisani, so you need something to trade that another team actually wants.

Mike Comrie - I think that we could get a return on Mike before the trade deadline. There are teams that need a cheap roster vet with an expiring contract like him. Might as well get a pick if we can since we might not be able to re-sign him this summer.

Gilbert Brule - Gilbert's had a decent year all things considered. I wouldn't be adverse to re-signing him or trading him though.

I agree that these are top-six players more in terms of their style than ability though. We need more size and talent in our top six, so I would be happy to move all but Gagner. Penner/Gagner/Hemsky leaves three spots or just two if Horcoff plays 2c.
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written by Ryan82, February 07, 2010
The only players who have earned their keep are Gagner and Brule. I really like Cogs, but I think his confidence is shot, mainly because he probably feels like he doesnt fit anywhere in the lineup. He constantly gets overlooked for pp time and just recently hes been playing on the top line. He needs a fresh start. I would like Comrie to stay, hes a good option for the second unit pp. But I think he's gone. O'Sullivan has to go, it seems to me he has a bit of an attitude. Nilsson is just to simular to the other pintsized on our team. If we can just package a small player and a vet for a high pick or cheap player coming back, that would be our only way to start this rebuild.

2010-11 lineup
Eberle - Horc - Hemmer
Penner - Gags - Brule
Omark - Potulny - Pouliot
Jacques - FA that can win faceoffs - Pisani(at a really reduced rate)
I was thinking another rookie over Pisani, but if Eberle and Omark play for the oil next year, I don't know if thats a good idea. This still leaves 4 peewees and Potulny. At least this spreads the mini's out. I know I put Gags and Brule on the same line, but they both can play with alittle edge. Maybe Blair Betts can be the FA. He brings size with him.
Playoff Bound? Possible rookie of the year? Hemmer and/or Omark on the highlight reels every game? Pouliot playing with more offensive players(they're not Crosby but maybe he just needs to play with better players to be a better player himself)just a theory. Horc gets back to 05-06 form riding on Hemmer and Eberle's ridiculous chemistry? Am I dreaming?

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