NHL's salary cap crushing roster

To start off with, I thought that I would attempt to create a roster of NHL players that would rival both Team Canada and Team USA in terms of the Team Cap Number.  However, the goal of this particular endeavor was to create the worst possible team roster while maximizing the team's salary cap.  In order to accomplish this, I included players who are among the worst contracts in the NHL this season.

It would certainly be very easy to make an inferior roster of players comprised of AHL call-ups and role players that would cost far less money in terms of the NHL salary cap.  Again, this was not the point.  The goal was to create the most expensive roster in terms of team cap number with the least value based upon the players; 2009-10 stats.  In short, the roster is made of players who represent the least bang for the buck.  Also, I gave extra points to players who's contracts have longer terms.  i.e.  Eric Staal who has an $8.250
million cap hit for four more seaons would be selected over a less-effective player who's contract was for $3 million cap hit for a shorter term.  It's basically like trying to create the worst possible fantasy league team while using as much salary cap as possible.  Follow the jump to find out who made the list...

Players were evaluated by their current NHL contracts (term, cap hit), boxcar stats this season, and goals vs. threshold.  GVT or goals vs threshold is a statistical metric from Behind The Net.  GVT is defined as, "the value of a player, in goals, above what a replacement player would have contributed."  Basically, high numbers reflect better contribution to the team while negative numbers reflect a player who's less effective than a replacement player.  To put GVT into context, here are some numbers of top-ranked players in the NHL by GVT:

NHL's Top Goaltenders by GVT

NHL's Top Forwards by GVT

NHL's Top Defesemen by GVT:

Low On Oil's 2009-10 Cap Killing Roster:

Depth Chart

Center

Eric Staal

• Team:  Carolina Hurricanes
  
• Salary cap hit:  $8.250 x 4 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  37 G:  13 A:  23  PTS:  36  +/-:  -1
• GVT:  6.2

Scott Gomez

• Team:  Montreal Canadiens
  
• Salary cap hit:  $7.357 x 4 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  48 G:  6 A:  28  PTS:  34  +/-:  -1
• GVT:  4.6

Daniel Briere

• Team:  Philadelphia Flyers
  
• Salary cap hit:  $6.5 x 3 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  42 G:  17 A:  16  PTS:  33  +/-:  -2
• GVT:  5.6

Shawn Horcoff

• Team:  Edmonton Oilers
  
• Salary cap hit:  $5.5 x 4 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  45 G:  9 A:  10  PTS:  19  +/-:  -23
• GVT:  0.4

David Legwand

• Team: Nashville Predators
• Salary cap hit:  $4.5 x 3 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  51 G:  10 A:  18  PTS:  28  +/-:  -6
• GVT:  3.8

Left Wing

Vyacheslav Kozlov

• Team:  Atlanta Thrashers
• Salary cap hit:  $3.667x 1 more season
• Boxcar Stats:  GP: 50  G: 8  A:  15  PTS:  23  +/-:  -14
• GVT:  2.7

Michal Handzus

• Team:  Los Angeles Kings
• Salary cap hit:  $4 x 1 more season
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  50 G:  11 A:  14  PTS:  25  +/-:  -0
• GVT:  5.2

Andrei Kostitsyn

• Team:  Montreal Canadiens
• Salary cap hit:  $3.25 x 3 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  40 G:  12 A:  13  PTS:  25  +/-:  +3
• GVT:  3.7

Ethan Moreau

• Team:  Edmonton Oilers
• Salary cap hit:  $2.0 x 1 more season
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  49 G:  4 A:  4  PTS:  8  +/-:  -8
• GVT:  -1.0

*Team cap number left wing:  $12.917 million

Right Wing

Brian Rolston

• Team: New Jersey Devils
• Salary cap hit:  $5.062 x 2 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  48 G:  15 A:  10  PTS:  25  +/-:  +2
• GVT:  5.1

Michael Ryder

• Team:  Boston Bruins
• Salary cap hit:  $4 x 1 more season
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  49 G:  12 A:  8  PTS:  20  +/-:  +1
• GVT:  1.7

Joffrey Lupul

• Team: Anaheim Mighty Ducks
• Salary cap hit:  $4.25 x 3 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  23 G:  10 A:  4  PTS:  14  +/-:  +3
• GVT:  3.8

Patrick O'Sullivan

• Team:  Edmonton Oilers
• Salary cap hit:  $2.92 x 1 more season
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  50 G:  10 A:  16  PTS:  26  +/-:  -23
• GVT:  2.1

*Team Cap hit right wing:  $16.232 million
**Team Cap Number forwards:  $61.256 million

Defensemen

Sheldon Souray

• Team:  Edmonton Oilers
• Salary cap hit:  $5.4 x 2 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  34 G:  4 A:  9  PTS:  13  +/-:  -14
• GVT:  1.3

Tom Gilbert

• Team:  Edmonton Oilers
• Salary cap hit:  $4.0 x 4 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  50 G:  2 A:  9  PTS:  11  +/-:  -6
• GVT:  1.4

Wade Redden

• Team:  New York Rangers
• Salary cap hit:  $6.5 x 4 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  44 G:  1 A:  7  PTS:  8  +/-:  +2
• GVT:  2.3

Jeff Finger

• Team:  Toronto Maple Leafs
• Salary cap hit:  $3.5 x 2 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  28 G:  2 A:  7  PTS:  9  +/-:  -11
• GVT:  0.8

Roman Hamrlik

• Team:  Montreal Canadiens
• Salary cap hit:  $5.5 x 1 more season
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  45 G:  5 A:  14  PTS:  19  +/-:  -3
• GVT:  4.4

Alex Pietrangelo

• Team:  St. Louis Blues
• Salary cap hit:  $3.196 x 2 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  9 G:  1 A:  1  PTS:  2  +/-:  -9
• GVT:  -0.8

Bryan Allen

• Team:  Florida Panthers
• Salary cap hit:  $2.9 x 2 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  46 G:  3 A:  6  PTS:  9  +/-:  0
• GVT:  1.3

*Team cap number defense:  $24.496 million
**Team cap number skaters:  $85.702 million

Goaltenders

Jean-Sebastien Giguere

• Team: Anaheim Mighty Ducks
• Salary cap hit:  $6.0 x 1 more season
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  19 SV%:  .900 GAA:  3.03
• GVT:  -1.7

Pascal Leclaire

• Team:  Ottawa Senators
• Salary cap hit:  $3.8 x 2 more seasons
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  26 SV%:  .890 GAA:  2.86
• GVT:  -5.6

Vesa Toskala

• Team:  Toronto Maple Leafs
• Salary cap hit:  $4 - expires this season
  
• Boxcar Stats:  GP:  24 SV%:  .874 GAA:  3.64
• GVT:  -13.6

*Team Cap Number goalies:  $13.8 million
**Total Team Cap number:  $99.502 million

Olympic Team Cap Number Comparison

Team Canada -  Team Cap Number:  $127,966,666
Team USA - Team Cap Number:  $85,212,499

Discussion

If this roster actually looks pretty good, let's keep in mind that it exceeds this year's NHL salary cap ($56.8 million) by $42.7 million dollars.  To put things in perspective, for the price, this team should be able to compete with Team USA or Team Canada which I don't think it would come close to either.

As well, there are some very good players on this roster like Eric Staal.  I included Eric Staal based on his bloated $8.250 cap hit x four more seasons.  One could make arguments for many of the players on this fantasy roster.  For example, Sheldon Souray suffered a concussion earlier this season along with the fact that he's playing in front of two AHL-caliber goaltenders.  Shawn Horcoff has played tough opposition with sub par linemates which could partially account for his -23 rating as well.  However, it's nearly impossible as well as very time consuming to try to factor these issues into consideration for a 23-man roster.

There's a good chance that I missed some players who should probably have made the cut for this fantasy team.  Who would you suggest should be on this year's NHL Cap Killing Roster?

Comments (10)

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written by Racki, January 23, 2010

Hmm, I mostly have suggestions of who to take off than who to put on. There are lots of good, obvious choices of who should stay though. But allow me to be picky about who is on that list, if you will!

Alex Pietrangelo - how did he make the list? But I would kill to have him on our team, and he's on an entry level contract. So it seems odd that he would be on there given that he has a low cap hit. He does make probably close to $3M though when you include bonuses however (but that doesn't count to cap in this case).

Staal, you already cited. Souray, well... tough call, but I'm happy with him at that price.

As for who should be on the list.. hmmmmmm (going through the list on NHL Numbers..). Paul Kariya is keeping pace with Horcoff right now and is making $6M (although he comes off the books this year). I think with his current production on the Flames, Jokinen could be considered severely overpaid. Brad Richards would normally get my vote, but he's doing pretty well this year. And well, he is a good player (just $7+ is tough to live up to, consistently). I wonder if Bryan McCabe is a good replacement for Pietrangelo. $4M to Pierre-Marc Bouchard makes me feel better about some of our young, unproven talent's contracts (Nilsson, Gilbert). He hasn't really played this year yet though. Patrik Elias is a good player, but is he living up to $6M right now? Three more years at that cap hit to go too. Agreed on Rolston! Once a good player, but now.. 5M? Ouch. But there is something to be said about veteran leadership, I suppose.

I can't believe you omitted the most obvious of cap-hit criminals... Chris Drury! :P He should definitely be there. $7M, 46GP, 8G, 11A, 19pts. I like Alex Kovalev, but not at the price the Sens are paying ($5M per), especially for only 35pts in 49 games.

There, there's a few extra for ya. :P

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written by Racki, January 23, 2010

Oh and btw, cool idea.. yet another novel idea from Low On Oil!

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written by Jay-, January 23, 2010

Hey Racki,

Thanks for your feedback. I had a feeling that I was missing a couple of players on the roster. Chris Drury at $7.05 million should be on this team. He has 19 points in 46 games along with a minus 7 rating. Don't know how I forgot him. :)

I could be wrong but NHL numbers suggests that the bonus for Pietrangelo does count against the cap. He's injured right now, so he's also a player that I could replace.

I had a hard time with some players like Staal, but I do think his contract is pretty crazy. As for Souray, I based his inclusion on his stats this season not previous years as for all players on the list.

Jokinen made my short list but his contract expires this season, so I didn't include him. Again, I only based the inclusion criteria on this years stats. Since Brad Richards is over a point-per-game albeit at minus 7, I didn't include him.

Bryan Mccabe would be a good choice too. Kovalev could easily make this list too at $5 million.

Patrick Elias would be a good addition to the left wing.

If I get a chance, I'll make some substitutions with Drury and Elias for sure. That will push this team's salary cap over $100 million which is a good number.

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written by Jay-, January 23, 2010

Oh as for Souray, since I based the player inclusion on their cap hit, contract length, and stats this season, there's no escaping his $5.4 million cap hit for 13 points in 34 games with a minus 14 rating. He also has a GVT o 1.3 this season which puts hims slightly above a replacement player.

Of course, there's a ton of factors which influence his stats such as his recent injury, Edmonton's AHL caliber goalies, as well as the fact that he plays against tough opposition. However, it would be too difficult to account for these and other factors for each player on the list.

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written by Racki, January 23, 2010

Yep, very good points all around and I agree with all you said. Although one thing on bonuses. Sorry it was misleading to say that bonuses don't count to the cap, and I think we're both right in a way on that. If you look on NHLnumbers, you'll see a section in the bottom called "Bonus Cushion". I believe the bonuses DO count towards the cap, but similar to the LTIR, the team is allowed to spend over the cap by a certain amount. I'm not sure why they phrase it that way, but I'm guessing it has more to do with teams that spend to the floor (so it allows them to reach the floor a little easier). Anyways, I'm no capologist, so I may have missed some details in that explanation, but that's the way I understand it.


BTW, CBC reported tonight on HNIC that Souray is going to provide his list of team's he'll waive for soon.

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written by chappy, January 24, 2010

Great post, Jay.

Jeff Finger @ 3.5M. Oof.

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written by Jay-, January 24, 2010

Hey Chappy, thanks I thought that it would be interesting to try to find some under performing contracts for this season.

Racki, yeah, it will be interesting to hear what teams are on the list and when/if a Souray trade will occur.

Souray's having an off year, but there's a ton of factors causing it, so I'm sure that there's still demand for a player like him. It would be interesting to see what type of return we could get for him.

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written by jonathanjoyce, January 25, 2010

Good post Jay, it is nice to see that the Oilers are good at something, even if it is just handing out bad contracts!

The Souray rumours seem to be heating up today. I'm not a big fan of the idea but I suppose it depends on what we get back for him. This will be the biggest test yet for Tambellini.

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written by Jay-, January 25, 2010

Thanks Jonathan,

Yeah, I would imagine that there must be a ton of pressure on Steve Tambellini to do something that instills a sense of hope for this franchise.

I'm on board with the Souray trade though I do value him his a hockey player and an Oiler. He brings leadership qualities and a physical presence that doesn't exist on this roster. However, he might be too old to contribute by the time this franchise turns the corner.

The Oilers are officially last place in the NHL right now. Some are speculating that it could take up to 7 years to turn this franchise around. I don't think that it will take that long, but it's likely to be at least two more years.

The Khabibulin contract will kill this franchise since he'll probably be on/off due to injury and there probably won't be cap space for a suitable back up. Even if he miraculously remains healthy throughout his contract, it's unlikely that he'll play to the level required for a competitive team given his age.

It will be interesting to see if Souray does get moved and what type of return Tambellini will be able to get for him.

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written by nillhouse., January 29, 2010

Spector - Lyle Richardson, doesn't think that the Oilers will be able to move either Sheldon Souray or Lubomir Visnovsky by the NHL trade deadline due to their big contracts. He's probably right.

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